The Impact of Taliban Ascendency

The Impact of Taliban Ascendency

The common refrain that the USA was kicked out of Afghanistan may not be wholly true. I suspect the US wanted this outcome, may be in a more orderly fashion than it actually happened.

By replacing Taliban 1 with Taliban 2 after 20 years of conflict, thousands of body bags and untold miseries to the local population Uncle Sam has mobilized the following future outcomes: -

1. Problems for China wrt Uighur unrest.

2. Possibility to create problems for CPC towards Taiwan and South China Sea after getting free from land battles.

3. Pin pricks for Shia Iran.

4. Some tangible uncertainties for CAR and Russia.

5. Continuous unrest astride the Durand Line as a permanent headache for Pakistan.

The Americans don't mind the so called 'loss of face'. Their arms trade will flourish, and they will try to find newer ways to counter China with the help of India and for sure will also be happy to curtail Indian growth story after 10 to 15 years down the line.

What could be the outcome of this historical twist of fate being sought to be manipulated by a power drunk country?

Firstly, the fundamentalist Islam will get a boost across the globe. With heightened passions violence can result in sensitive areas of India and neighbouring countries.

Secondly, there may be threat to US and European assets and personnel in South Asia, Middle East and Eurasia region.

Thirdly, travel restrictions must be carefully considered before venturing out for business and/ or pleasure trips till the situation becomes clear after three months or so.

Fourthly, the large-scale displacement/ migration of Afghans could create adverse security situation.

Fifthly, the problem of drug smuggling out of Afghanistan - Pakistan will create governing issues for India.

And lastly the internal security situation in Indian Punjab, Kashmir and states bordering Pakistan face an escalation aided and abetted by ISI of Pakistan.

The business houses will have to be vigilant while recruiting and during routine operations. The security industry will have to cater to the increased threats by way of alert, well trained security personnel backed by an effective technical surveillance, monitoring and decision support system to have real time information and quick reaction teams to support the ground staff.

The ratio of armed guards is set to dramatically rise, especially after any major incident on our soil.
Inter-agency coordination will be of utmost importance and will make a difference between deterrence or reactive only capability.